UK inflation has fallen dramatically, but data this week could see it ticking in the opposite direction.
Energy prices and higher wages will be the driver with wage inflation of 5%+ inconsistent with a 2% inflation target.
The new government has agreed pay awards for the public sector and the minimum wage could be revised upwards by 6% next April.
Scope for further interest rate cuts from the Bank of England now seem more limited than previously.
Steven Bell is a Managing Director, responsible for providing macro strategy input to a broader range of multi asset investment portfolios. He joined Columbia Threadneedle through the acquisition of BMO GAM (EMEA) in 2021, having previously been with BMO since 2013. He joined the group having run the GLC’s Global Macro programme for the previous seven years. Before that he was Global Chief Economist and Investment Head of the UK multi asset business at Deutsche Asset Management during his tenure 1984 – 2005. Steven began his career as an Economic Adviser at the UK Treasury and has degrees in economics from the London School of Economics and Stanford University, California.
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